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5.7
-- IDENTIFY AND ASSESS RISK |
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ECCLESIASTES
10.8-9 9. Whoever quarries stones may be injured by them; whoever splits logs may be endangered by them. |
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Perhaps the theme of management responsibility and the need to more fully investigate even apparently innocuous situations continues as Solomon discusses the problems of risk, such as the promotion of people to their level of incompetence, perhaps -- and the importance of identifying potential dangers in a working environment, as well as the potential down-side risk in any project. It is interesting that the examples apparently concern construction, building, repairing and improving, providing very appropriate metaphors for the work of an executive -- one whose job it is to make plans and execute them, in contrast to a manager whose job is to efficiently administer and maintain the status quo. People tend to fall into a pit after it has been dug and left uncovered or unfenced. Here is an easily foreseen hazard – and the person injured will probably not be the one who dug the pit. It is important, therefore, to consider the hazard being created for other, unwary individuals. We fall into a pit when we step out into an area where we expect to be supported by solid ground, only to find none there – so metaphorically speaking the pit could represent a lack of support in a business situation, perhaps a lack of service personnel or inefficient processing of orders in the back office and careless stock control resulting in a lack of spare parts when they are needed. The needed support could also be psychological – especially in the Church, where, as we have seen, the members are engaged in dangerous spiritual warfare against powerful enemy forces. The hazard of a pit is an obvious but passive danger , but the snake curled up inside the old stone wall is hidden and must be foreseen. Furthermore the snake is not passive, and when it is disturbed it will strike back and attack you. The wary builder will, of course, be on his guard – and will take sensible precautions, such as wearing gloves and certainly not go poking his hands inside any cavities that become exposed. Metaphorically speaking, a manager will likewise be cautious and consider the potential hostile reactions a new marketing initiative might trigger on the part of the competition. People can fall into a pit, but quarry workers are already in a sort of pit, and things may fall in on them! This time, however, the danger may be much greater, possibly involving a number of workers, because a whole quarry face could collapse and bury them under many tons of rubble, almost certainly killing some. The hazard in a quarry is that of a chain reaction, an avalanche or a dangerous domino effect, whereby the effect of a small initial action becomes amplified over and over and escalates out of control. To avoid such situations the manager clearly has to think many steps ahead, like a good chess player. A simple physical example occurred when I was painting a wall on a staircase in my house. Working up a ladder, I accidentally dropped the can of paint, partly because I was wearing gloves which reduced my grip. Although I had taken the precaution of covering the stairs from top to bottom with large painter’s drop cloths, the can accelerated as I watched helpless, then bounced down step by step, faster and faster, finally spraying a door and spreading its contents over the hall carpet. I had only thought one obvious and inadequate step ahead. Splitting logs is a simple process, but also a hazardous one. This time the danger comes from two sources, the product and the process -- the flying blocks of wood and also the sharp edge of the rapidly moving axe itself. Although splitting logs is quite easy, the fact that it is repetitious makes it easy for the mind to wander, at which point painful mistakes can be made. Perhaps the lesson is that expressed in the modern business metaphor of keeping your eye on the ball at all times. The man splitting logs could, of course, take sensible precaution such as wearing goggles and gloves. Modern safety regulations, developed as a result of sad experience, require managers to pay careful attention to the safety hazards of all equipment and also chemicals. Even so, mistakes still get made, especially when regular maintenance is neglected and sensible procedures are not thought through and followed The essential principles extend to all aspects of an enterprise, and the effective manager carries out regular SWOT analyses in consultation with his personnel – meticulously analyzing every aspect of his business in order to identify and analyze the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. All
action and attempts at improvement, it seems, involves the risk of making
a mistake, which is why the overly-cautious and ineffective executive
is prone to avoid innovative ideas, stamp on initiative and stick as closely
as possible to the status quo. The headstrong executive, on the other
hand, may be too quick to innovate and fail to exercise enough foresight
in anticipating and assessing the downside risk of his projects. |
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